tpenn

I Opened Over 50 Crates to Determine Which Ones Give the Best Drops and Here are the Results

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ZGS's First Ever PsuedoScientific Paper on Weapon Drop and Rarity Rates Among Various Species of the Crate Genus

Hello there. My name is Tpenn and I am ZGS's first and only independent, self-appointed pretend scientist. I recently conducted a study to compare the weapon drop rates, rarity, and star levels among three species of the Crate genus, namely the Common crate, Elite crate, and Premium crate. You can read the abstract for a quick and generalized overview of my results if you don't wish to read the full study.

Summary/Abstract: I am defining high tier as the highest possible weapon tier I can get as a level 21, low tier as the starting weapon, and mid tier as whatever is between. After opening about 50 Common crates I received zero legendaries, one epic mid tier, two rare high tiers (one of which was for ground troops), and four uncommon high tiers. They were all one star. I opened two Elite crates and they both had one uncommon three star high tier weapon and one uncommon three star ground troop weapon (one low tier, one high tier). I opened two Premium crates and each contained two uncommon and eight common items with four being the lowest tier, three mid tier, and three high tier (only one uncommon was high tier). Based on my data (which has too small of a sample size to be reliable, is scientifically unsound and insignificant, and would get you an F in any college or graduate science/math class), to get the most value from your gold when using it on crates: buy Elite crates if you’re looking for uncommon weapons, spend gold to open Common crates for a smaller chance at an uncommon but greater chance of higher rarities, and buy Premium crates if you want to cry or are using your ex’s account.

Introduction/Methods: After seeing a lot of people ask about weapon rarity and if they should buy Elite/Premium crates, I decided to crack a bunch open and keep track of what I got. Besides the Elite and Premium crates, I only opened Common crates. I opened about 45 of them but I know I didn’t get anything special for at least 5-10 crates before I started keeping track, so I’ll just say I opened about 50 commons. Because it would simply take way too long to record every single item I got from the Commons, I only kept track of notable items. I defined notable items to be any legendaries, any epics, any rares, and any high tier uncommons. I defined high tier as the highest weapon tier I can get for my rank, which is 21. That means I considered an AC 20 as high tier, a 7.62 MG as mid tier, and a 5.56 MG as low tier.

Results: From all of the Common crates, here are the notable weapons I got (all one star):

  • 1 uncommon AC 20 (high tier)
  • 1 uncommon 40/70 cannon (high tier)
  • 1 rare griffin missile (high tier)
  • 1 uncommon griffin missile (high tier)
  • 1 epic 68mm rocket pod (mid tier)
  • 1 uncommon 25mm sniper (high tier)
  • 1 rare M40 sniper (high tier)

The only weapons that were better than my existing weapons were griffin missile and M40 sniper, and sadly I don’t use either in my current layout so I won’t be using any of the weapons I got from the last 50 crates.

From the Elites I got all uncommon three star weapons versions of: 25mm sniper, MS marksman, griffin missile, and WLSN shotgun. All high tier except for the low tier marksman. I was able to use the shotgun but the rest were all weaker than what I already have. The Premium crates had many more weapons in them but their quality was significantly worse on average. They both had two uncommons and eight commons with four low tier, three mid tier, and three high tier weapons. Of the uncommons, only one of them was high tier (100mm rocket), one was mid tier, and two were low tier.

Discussion: If you buy two Premium and two Elite cases from the store, that’ll cost you 600 gold. Let’s use 600 gold as an arbitrary benchmark. That 600 gold could also be used to open 20 Common crates, which is about 2/5 of the number of Commons I opened. I got a total of seven notable weapons from my ~50 crates, so 2/5 of seven is 2.8 notable weapons per 20 crates or 2.8 notable weapons per 600 gold of opening. 600 gold could also get you three Premium crates, and given my record of one notable weapon per two Premiums, that would give you about 1.5 notable weapons per 600 gold. Or you could buy six Elite crates which I have at three notable weapons per two crates, giving you about 9.0 notable weapons per 600 gold. While nine does sound good, keep in mind that they were all uncommons; no rares, epics, or legendaries. I don’t know if Elite crates only carry uncommons with no chance for any other rarity or what, but if that’s the case, they’re unlikely to be helpful if you have high tier weapons above common rarity. Also please note that this is an incredibly small sample size so these numbers are very unlikely to be representative of the actual odds.

To give some additional perspective on rarities, I’ve now opened a total of eight Premium crates, five Elite crates, probably 120-160 Common crates, and an unknown number of Express crates. I have kept all of my legendary, epic, and rare weapons. I have one legendary, two epics, and seven rares. Two of the rares are for ground troops I don’t normally use, three are low tier weapons (one of them was high tier when I got it), and the other two are high tier weapons. My epics are low and mid tier, but the mid tier was high when I got it. My legendary is now low tier (20mm sniper) but it was high tier when I got it and since there’s only two sniper tiers, I think it’ll still outperform the high tier until I get an epic or legendary 25mm.

I don’t know when I’ll do another round of this but I plan to sometime in the future. If you collect any data on your drop rates please post them here so I can make them part of a larger study that should provide more accurate results. I hope you found some of this information helpful.

Acknowledgements: I’d like to thank my job for providing me with the monetary funds to perform this study, my research assistants that I don’t have, Flare Games for creating the platform and not releasing any information whatsoever about weapon drop probabilities leading to me to do this study in order to give other players at least some slight yet methodologically flawed insight of what the probabilities might be despite how simple it would be to add a small description of which crates offer increased chances of which rarities or items which would basically answer most everybody’s questions about what crate to buy without having to give away their exact probability values thus stopping the same question that appears in the in-game forums every three minutes asking for advice on if Elite or Premium crates are worth buying, you for actually reading this far, and my girlfriend because it’ll make her feel good if I say I included her in a study.

Literature cited: Myself and my student’s notebook that I used for notes because she forgot it in lab and was too lazy to come pick it up.

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Good experiment!  You're lucky you got one epic though its a low tier weapon. Im level 30, i opened up like 5 premiums and 10 elites and only got one blue, some green and commons.  So im telling you guys its not worth it to spend gold on crates. sorry for my bad inglish

RighteousFury and tpenn like this

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I'm maximum rank 30, opened several crates every day since before and after the rarity function was implemented and have yet to get a legendary weapon. Still holding out hope.

Karos, anas76 and RighteousFury like this

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This is pretty much my experience too; lots of crates, not a lot of higher power (rarity) weapons.

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I am getting mostly commons and some greens, mind that I am just approaching level 15 by farming the frosty mission, I do have a legendary and an epic but I am way past those weapons now though, hopefully something good will come soon

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Thanks for the info on your crates everyone. When I do my next crate opening study I'll include a part about the crates you all have opened and what your results were. I would like to avoid selection bias if possible though so be sure to mention if you got any good drops, not just bad ones. I feel like people will be more inclined to post here about their bad drops which would lead to inaccurate data. On the same note, if you were going to post here after opening 10 crates and cracked open a legendary in each one (and the winning lottery numbers), don't avoid posting because it doesn't fit the narrative of crappy drops, we want as much info we can get. 

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Posted (edited)

On 5/30/2017 at 1:29 PM, OnLikeDnkyKong said:

@tpenn Unbelievable research!  Really well done.  Hats off to you!  This one is worthy of being stickied IMHO

Make it so!

On 5/31/2017 at 8:28 PM, Karos said:

Same, le sigh.

*Le sighs as well*

On 5/31/2017 at 3:24 AM, TurboTIB said:

I'm maximum rank 30, opened several crates every day since before and after the rarity function was implemented and have yet to get a legendary weapon. Still holding out hope.

Only purple I EVER got was from the Thank You gift ;-;

On 5/31/2017 at 11:08 PM, anas76 said:

*Holding my AC25* My preccciioooouuussss!

yeeeeessssshhhh, wa- that's MY PRECIOUUUUSSS

 

I wanted to like a lot of posts, but I've reached the limit of 30 per day, didn't even know it existed😂

 

@tpenn, I ought to use that kind of research layout and humor on my college paper one of these days😂

3 📣 for you my good sir!

📣

📣

📣

Edited by RighteousFury
anas76, tpenn and OnLikeDnkyKong like this

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On 2017-06-02 at 5:56 PM, tpenn said:

Thanks for the info on your crates everyone. When I do my next crate opening study I'll include a part about the crates you all have opened and what your results were. I would like to avoid selection bias if possible though so be sure to mention if you got any good drops, not just bad ones. I feel like people will be more inclined to post here about their bad drops which would lead to inaccurate data. On the same note, if you were going to post here after opening 10 crates and cracked open a legendary in each one (and the winning lottery numbers), don't avoid posting because it doesn't fit the narrative of crappy drops, we want as much info we can get. 

Ok to be exact if that is what you want.

20 premiums, 30 elites.

commons and useless greens and one blue shotgun.  Do you think it all worth 70 bucks?

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, JanRoberts said:

Ok to be exact if that is what you want.

20 premiums, 30 elites.

commons and useless greens and one blue shotgun.  Do you think it all worth 70 bucks?

Been there done that, kind of, and no, not worth them at all.

Some of my cases:

 

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Posted (edited)

Many people have been commenting on the poor drops from the crates they have been purchasing with real money, so I thought I'd revitalize this amazing thread on actual crate probabilities that @tpenn put together.  It clearly demonstrates the low probabilities of getting something good from premium and elite cases (yes it is based on a small sample size but who is going to fund a large one?).  I highly suggest checking this out BEFORE you spend your hard earned, real cash!

@mabaeyens also provides some incredible info as well on his purchases too

Edited by OnLikeDnkyKong
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1 hour ago, Primathon said:

Another example with some data to mine through (about $350 worth, to be exact)

 

Thanks for including that link too @Primathon!  I didn't have a chance to include that one as well.  Thanks for posting your vices @LegendaryCrate!

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