Luck in the Chamber of Fortune

How much luck do you have in the Chamber of Fortune? (COF)

… and what do you think how much luck makes sense?

My values look like this:

greetings Jesper

When I follow the formula that Lisa gave us, I have the feeling algorithm is incorrect, it doesn’t matter which point of view I use.

First chest without luck should be 75% success, my luck is also around your number plus pro gear and pal should also increase odds on success. When I raid with luck gear, around 91% of first chest should be successful, despite that fact, around one in 5-6 cof first chest is a failure and pretty common two or more times in a row. With that percentage of luck, we should get average of more than 2 out of 3 chests in total, however it’s not even close to 50%.

Since we only get tokens plus gems in third chest, the odds are zero for third reward when those are in there. In that situation those gems plus tokens instead should not even be in there.
I raid with Hans in luck gear in the hope to get either items or pearls (third reward), but after tokens are added in there, the odds to find them there, decreased a lot.

Wrote a simulation program that shows actual results after 1M tries. My program comes pretty close to expected outcome, but outcome in game is way lower than it should be.

Dena4 can you find the Post with the calculation and link it here?

I think it’s interesting for all players in Players helping Players


Plus

Pro gear should be summed up and calculated as one extra stat.

:roll_eyes:

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@mss73 really really nice

@Dena4 the value 80% can not be correct, bc the pro items provides luck too. (in wiki denied too) the calculation is nice to know … Thanks for linking!

I am confused by the calculated final value … What is the 2 values for the items?:roll_eyes:
for me that makes no sense: image

Value 117,36% is sum of your luck gear. However, the formula doesn’t work that way, otherwise we would win always, since 100% is max.

The max 80% is nonsense, it was told before Lisa explained how it works. Pro gear luck is never explained, but when I calculate that, there is a sum of it done and added as an additional parameter for luck (say total is 10%, then outcome is multiplied by 1-0.1).

My luck gear is at 75,40% considering also pro bonus and pro pal.

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Do we still need the first high luck value? :thinking:
Are they still used elsewhere than in the COF :grey_question:

Maybe @Madlen can say something about the both Luck values, i hope the calculation is still the same…:microphone:

for me, the 2 values ​​are confusing … luck is luck and not luck and low luck :joy:

The one between () is just the sum of luck. the other one also is no more and no less just a number outcome of the formula below, without holding reckon with pro pal and pro items.

Just calculate bad luck as (1 - luck perk1) x (1 - luck perk2) x (1 - luck perk …)
That results in a number, subtract that number from 1 and there you go, your luck percentage. The one between () is the sum.

Let me explain with an example.
I have 5 pro items on luck wardrobe. That results in 10% extra luck.

I have 17.31% + 17.31%, 17,31 17.31%, 14.69%, 14.59%, 13.44%.

Fill that into the formula (1-17.31%)x(1-17.31%)x(1-17.31%)x(1-17.31%)x(1-14.69%)x(1-14.59%)x(1-13.44%) => 29.4944% bad luck. So luck = 70.506%. that number is displayed on info of luck wardrobe. They never explained luck of pro boosts, how to use that in the picture.

Even without pro luck success, based on Lisa her explanation in first chest Luck should be 92.63% , second chest 76.23 % (holding reckon with failure on first one) and 64.10% on third chest (holding reckon with failures on first two chests).

I definitely don’t get 92 out of 100 first chest rewards, like I said, one in 5-6 opened first chests still results in a failure.

So either the algorithm has changed or a very bad seed is used to determine success.

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