# Luck perk should be retitled 'suck perk"

Because the way it works sucks.

I would expect, with 80% luck total, that I would get the 1st chest 90% of the time, the second chest 76.5+% of the time, and the third chest 61.9+% of the time, assuming the baseline chance of opening each chest is at minimum 10% for the first chest, 5% for the second chest, and 1% for the third chest, which I hope are the BARE MINIMUMS (they seem higher based on the number of times I get the third chest with NO luck perk).

While that trend was present for the first few CoF’s, the trend since then has declined greatly based on a sample of a hundred chests or so. I might get the 3rd chest 20% of the time. LAME!

Flare, what is the deal? Are the values perhaps not always registering? Do you hate me? (Don’t answer that; I know you hate me. But don’t hate me as much as you do.) Am I bad at math?

The math: Total probability for three chests = (Luck%+First chest%)*(Luck%+Second chest%)*(Luck%+third chest%)

Luck sucks,

It’s more like the first chest you have 50% chance, 2nd 30% chance, 3rd 10% chance for example.

It’s 80% bonus of those values. So it becomes 90%, 2nd 54% and 3rd 18%.

Those are just examples, but having 80% more luck doesn’t mean you have 80% succes rate.

So where did you get this info?

As said i used examples, it’s not official information.

If the developers or @Alysea could give us the exact chances then we can do math from that.

That could very well make sense, but yeah, we need the official information to specify.

But still, those odds are still pathetic. You’re trading upwards of 6 gears for that much luck perk and assuming you’re even close to correct on your chances, you get… 8% more chance on the third chest?

That would be HUGELY pathetic and would need to be reworked. MAJORLY.

Adju, just going by math in cof-

1st chest opened 3/6 = 50% chance

2nd chest opened 3/6×2/5 = 20% chance

3rd chest opened 3/6×2/5×1/4 = 5% chance.

Maybe 8% luck gives 8% lower chanchance of failing on a particular wrong chest. But yes I am also starting to feel it is wrong. Although my luck is somewhat better with 2.6% luck but it is just imagination… probably.

There is no such a thing as a math  (in my opinion)
FG wants to get mony from U, this is not a charity game
If U use gems, U`r “luck” will rise

…and the 3rd price will be good enough
…becouse when U don`t use gems and “luck” gives U a 3rd ch. the price i not good enough

You should be moderator!!!

_For a Server Update in December 2014_Flaregames announced more luck in the Chamber of Fortune, suggesting that odds are not what they seem. Statistically, if the chests are picked randomly, a player ought to have a 5% chance of opening three chests with rewards without using any gems [(3/6)*(2/5)*(1/4)=(6/120)=(1/20)]. A detailed log with hundreds of entries would be necessary to determine if Flaregames is truly randomizing the Chamber of Fortune chest system.

Took from wiki. This is the math.

Also what playerme said is likely but i feel there might be a cap on luck say 75%.

That would be 50% / 40% / 25%.

Buffed with 80% that’s 90% / 72% / 45%

Which comes close to the results of:

Err… I have to correct you a bit.

There is a difference between probability to open 3 chests and the 3rd chest. Those are 2 separate things.

Probability to open the 1st chest is 50%.

Probability to open at least 1 chest is also 50%

But here is the difference.

Prob. to open 2nd chest is 40%

BUT Probability to open 2 chests is 50%*40%=20%

Prob. to open 3rd chest is 25%

BUT Prob. to open all 3 is 5%

Now with 80% luck, a Player will open the 3rd chest 50% of the times WHEN HE REACHES THE 3RD CHEST

Most get confused in the grammar part. So when you enter CoF,  at the start you have only 9% luck even with 80% luck perk to open all the chests.

It’s not actually 3/6 for the first chest, it’s more like 75%, what you see are not the actual odds you get.

…eerrrr

…only sugestion

You guy do really a long debate and try to find the right % of chest and who have right and who have wrong? You know only Flaregames have the true answer of this question. I think don’t need to debate on that anymore. Some people have do a topic on Luck Perk and no one have found the answer on how work luck perk

the only thing we know is that don’t worth it at all to use this perk

I just tried to answer the question mathematically. But there is a different subject known as rr2 maths.

Normal Maths: 3y + 7 = 58. y = 17.

Flare Maths: 7y - 2 = 93. Give me gems and I’ll tell you what y is. Otherwise don’t ask.

yes

long ago, before luck perk

it was confirmed 75% 40% 25%

Well, not needed. I’m not investigating this, lol. You never know, they might change the value of y with one server update.

SO MANY DIFFERENT NUMBERS. And my observation when I had max 30% luck perk, taken by a spreadsheet because I’m a complete and utter dork, showed no difference between 1 luck perk and 3 perks using a statistically significant 32 samples.

It would not surprise me in the least if this function, like so many other functions in the game, was stricken with bugs.

Flare, please check the implementation. And make 80% luck perk a TAD bit more effective than it is.