You are forgetting that the number of the attacks matter in the matchmaking. And then there is a certain amount of attacks that some users may receive (it can’t go beyond that). You are making guesses, without having all the facts in front of you, just by looking some attack logs. Your research has to be on a much larger scale.
Some folks attack a lot, and get the same amount of attacks in (especially on lower trophy counts)
Some folks attack a lot, and get few attacks (perhaps they are too high in trophies/ranking).
Some folks don’t attack and dont get attacked, or get attacked a lot.
All these numbers have to be evened out. Lets take the top25 situation. I am assuming these guys are heavy hitters, meaning over 50-100 attacks per day. Perhaps much more if we go to top10. But they receive much lower attacks.
We have explained the reason, its so they do not lose 50x15 or even 50x12 trophies, making it unfair to them, as they would lose more than what they gain due to the bigger trophy gain (if that changed to +3 in all cases, it could fix a lot of things - but thats a nice spice in the formula, difficult to replace).
So let me take an average of 3-5 attacks per day on the top 25 (received). A max of 125 attacks received in the top 25 guys. (While they attacked around 2500 times minimum)
Why would anyone expect to hit a top25 member, just because of their ranking, is so irrelevant and proven by the following numbers: There could be 100000 attacks out there daily (I think much more - but lets take an example, which is a relevant pool over 10k trophies and 135-140 or more level). So lets say 800 members x 20 attacks = 16000. Obviously 125 will be hit on top25. Its OBVIOUS… that even if the distribution was EVEN, you would have a VERY small chance to get a top25. 125 of 16000 can be on top25’s give or take a few numbers. And the distribution, is probably not even… for a number of reasons.
Its not a matter of the trophy/level relevance or weight in the matchmaking. It is clearly the amount of attacks that players can take in. Just because you are 50k or 80k trophies, doesn’t mean you should meet the top5 or top10 players or top24. That just cant happen, for the reason I explained, low attacks received by high ranked players.
And I’ve also mentioned the possibility of servers… so this might even lower the chances of getting someone specific.
I got Lithgow today, and the last 15 trophy guy was last week. Before that, it’s probably been 3-4 weeks.