The Odds of Success in Upgrading Towers and Obstacles during the Blacksmith Meltdown are Wrong!
Today, I stat upgraded (pearls) 22 Towers/Obstacles, and after one of the recent updates I noticed that even though the Blacksmith Meltdown shows an improved chance of success on Tower/Obstacle stat upgrades… I think the success rate is actually worse than normal!
If you look at the little green red circle durring the Blacksmith Meltdown it looks like the success rate should be about 40%.
But today I upgraded 22 Towers/Obstacles and of those 22, I only succeeded on the first try with 2!
So I ran a T-Test (Statistics), and it could be shown by any school teacher that with a 99.9% certainty the chance of success is significantly less than 40%!
According to my sample the true probability of success would be approximately 10% which is significantly lower than upgrading outside the Blacksmith Meltdown.
Which actually makes more sense if it costs extra to upgrade during the Meltdown, but we are paying for the bonus of the 12 hour cool down.
BUT I WANT THE REAL FREAKING FRACKING FRIGGING FLIPPING DATA FROM FLARE! STOP ROUTINELY HABITUALLY LYING TO US! WE’RE FREAKING NERDS (AND YOU SHOULD KNOW THAT), WE KNOW HOW TO CALL YOU ON THIS BULL AND PROVE YOU’RE LYING!